2024 integrated report

Analysis of macroeconomic developments 

Throughout 2024, the global economy showed resilience, but growth disparities between the major regions widened. Ebbing inflation, diverging economies and structural weaknesses: all these contrasting signals raise questions about the future. What are the main challenges ahead and what opportunities could emerge? Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Chief Economist of BNP Paribas, analyses recent trends and sheds light on future prospects.

WHAT DO YOU TAKE AWAY FROM 2024 IN TERMS OF THE ECONOMY?

Isabelle Mateos y Lago: In 2024, global growth managed to hold steady at 3.2%, i.e. a pace similar to that of 2023. However, this rate masks divergent trends between the world’s major economic centres. The eurozone posted a rate of 0.7%, while the United States and China reached 2.8% and 4.9%, respectively. The year was marked by the widespread easing of inflationary tensions, as a result of lower pressure on energy prices and the measures taken by central banks. The latter were thus able to implement a policy of interest rate reduction

WHAT’S BEHIND THE DESYNCHRONISATION OF TRENDS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA?

I.M.L.: Despite the generally favourable effects of monetary policy, the eurozone economies face structural difficulties. High debt levels, a lack of coordination on budgetary policy, stagnating productivity in a context of ageing populations, falling industrial output and declining exports, particularly in Germany: all these factors are weighing on their level of and potential for growth, not to mention the political crises in France and Germany, which have hampered initiatives to revive the European economy.

For its part, the US economy continued to take off in 2024, with a buoyant labour market and consumer spending, a strong dollar and a loose fiscal policy supporting forward-looking investment, notably in infrastructure and the energy transition. Meanwhile, China owed its resilient growth to a record level of exports, although domestic demand remained hindered by a persistent property crisis, historically high unemployment, especially among young people, and structural shortcomings in the social security safety net, leading to very high household savings.

IN THIS CONTEXT, WHAT WILL 2025 LOOK LIKE?

I.M.L.: At the beginning of the year, we thought that global growth would be around 3%. However, the policy of the new US administration has significantly changed the situation to date. In the United States, uncertainty prevails. The first signs of a slowdown are appearing; the dollar and interest rates have weakened and the stock markets have reversed. Household and business confidence indicators are falling sharply. All these data suggest that a significant slowdown in the US economy is likely. Conversely, the European Union’s growth prospects have been significantly boosted by recent developments, notably Germany’s historic decision to commit around €1 billion in public spending on infrastructure and defence over 10 years. And there are several other buoyant trends: Europe – unlike the United States – should benefit from an additional monetary easing. The European Union has become aware of its lack of competitiveness on a global scale and the urgent need to adapt to the new economic and strategic situation imposed by the United States. It has therefore launched two flagship initiatives: the ReArm Europe plan to stimulate its investments in defence capabilities and the Competitiveness Compass to address its structural weaknesses and simplify its regulatory burden. Lastly, China, faced with increasingly high trade barriers from many of its partners, is now considering whether it can boost its domestic consumption, which would be beneficial for both China and the rest of the world.

INTERVIEW CONDUCTED ON 26 MARCH 2025.